Democratic Governors' group eyeing California in 2010

California’s next gubernatorial election is more than 31 months away, but a national Democratic organization already sees the now-Republican seat as a prime target in 2010.

“California is certainly one to look at,” said Nathan Daschle, the executive director of the Democratic Governors Association, an independent, Washington-based organization devoted to supporting Democratic gubernatorial incumbents and nominees across the country. “That’s a seat I can see going our way.”

Daschle said the DGA, anticipating a high-profile California race, was planning on ramping up its activity in the state in the immediate future. The organization will send several political department staffers to the state several times this year to survey the gubernatorial landscape, meeting with party officials, allied groups, elected officials, past candidates and, perhaps most crucially, potential candidates.

A handful of Democrats have been mentioned as possible contenders, including Attorney General Jerry Brown, San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom, Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi, State Treasurer Bill Lockyer, State Superintendent of Public Instruction Jack O'Connell, former State Treasurer Phil Angelides, and former State Controller Steve Westly.

Daschle said it was unlikely that the DGA would endorse a candidate in the Democratic primary, but he left the possibility open.

The DGA’s plans for California are part of a national program the organization has launched called Project 2010, a four-year plan aimed at preparing Democratic incumbents and challengers through the elections. Like the Democratic senate and congressional campaign arms, the DGA has operated on a two-year cycle, but the heavy concentration of races in 2010 – there will be 16 races between 2007 and 2009 and 36 races in 2010 – prompted the organization to recalibrate.

“We just think some long-term planning is what we need to do,” said Daschle, who is the son of former U.S. Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle.

Jennifer Duffy, a nonpartisan analyst for the Cook Political Report, said that with Congressional redistricting – a fiercely political process in which governors play an active role - beginning in 2011 and 2012, both parties see the 2010 gubernatorial battles as hugely important. “There are enormous stakes here,” she said.

The DGA says that the four-year project, with its financial and political outreach, comprised the most aggressive planning in the DGA’s 25-year history. DGA aides pointed to first quarter fundraising reports showing the organization taking in $5.7 million – a first quarter record for the organization - and having $10.5 million in cash on hand. Daschle said the fundraising would allow the organization to spend an average of $1 million on each race by 2010, $500,000 more than its average per-race expenditure in 2006. In California, election spending laws permit the DGA to give a candidate up to $22,300, though it is allowed to provide third party groups with unlimited amounts of money.

The DGA is hardly alone in expressing interest in the Golden State’s 2010 gubernatorial showdown. Potential candidates on both sides of the aisle are privately meeting with advisers to discuss plans, and operatives are holding on and off the record conversations with reporters to advertise their interest.

There appear to be fewer possible Republican candidates than Democrats. The short list includes Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner, former Ebay CEO Meg Whitman and former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina – all of who have fortunes from which to draw upon.

Daschle said the possibility of facing a self-funding candidate was further impetus for planning early in the state. “Whenever you face a self-funder it dramatically changes the equation,” he said.

The outlook for Democrats in the Golden State in many ways appears favorable. The state’s Republican Party is in a state of financial disarray, starting out 2008 with a $20,000 cash shortfall, and new voter data shows Democrats with a 1,700,000 registration edge.

But winning the California governorship has proven to be something of an elusive goal for Democrats in recent years. Republicans have held the seat for 21 of the last 25 years.

Duffy, the political analyst, pointed out that the 2010 Republican nominee will have the advantage of riding the coattails of the popular outgoing Schwarzenegger.

Chris Schrimpf, a spokesman for the Republican Governors Association, did not specify the organization’s plans for competing in the California race, but said the RGA was implementing its own four-year plan. He noted that the RGA outraised the DGA in 2007, taking in $22 million to the DGA’s $12 million, and had $3 million more in cash on hand. He also said the organization was making an active effort to seek out potential candidates, with Georgia Governor Sonny Perdue tasked with recruiting efforts.

“We are actively talking to leaders in the states and are trying to figure out who the strongest candidates would be,” he said.