Analyzing the Clinton campaign's CA predictions

Recently-released campaign memos obtained by The Atlantic show that the presidential campaign of U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) made some accurate predictions along with some miscalculations regarding the Golden State's primary.

An early memo from political strategist Harold Ickes in March, 2007 predicted that "[Barack Obama] will substantially reduce [Hillary Clinton] vote in CA". In a January 21 memo, the campaign listed California as one of the four "HRC Base States", along with Arkansas, New Jersey and New York.

The campaign predicted they would win the state by 56 to 44 percent, though the actual result was 51.5 to 43.2 percent. They also expected to collect 212 delegates to 158 for Obama, though the margin was considerably more narrow: 204 to 166.

The same memo noted that the campaign considered five Congressional Districts with an odd number of delegates "competitive", and that "winning these districts will result in an additional delegate." Those districts were: CA-1, 7, 24, 28, 29.

The campaign narrowly lost the 1st district by a few hundred votes, but carried the other four targets. Although they won the 28th district by a 23 point margin, they still only net one additional delegate.

The campaign targeted a number of "strong" Clinton districts, composed largely of "Hispanic and downscale Anglo voters" where "we should try to garner 59% of the vote, which would trigger an additional delegate." The target districts were: CA-18, 19, 21, 23, 31-32, 34, 38-39, 43, 45 and 51.

The campaign succeeded at getting an additional delegate in CA-18, 21, 31, 32, 34, 38, 39, 43, 45 and 51, but they only managed 55 percent of the vote in the 19th and in fact narrowly lost in the 23rd.